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Used Vehicle Value Index

Index Release Date
Thursday, Mar 7

Mid-Month Release Date
Tuesday, Mar 19

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Quarterly Conference Call

The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Friday, Apr 5 at 11am ET.

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Join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, and Scott Vanner, Economic and Industry Insights analyst, as they discuss the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the major economic and industry trends that shaped the quarter. The special guest will be Joe Kichler, vice president of Manheim Logistics.

All questions related to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and wholesale market can be sent to manheim.data@coxautoinc.com

Listen to a recording of the last call.

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January 2024

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October 2023

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April 2023

January 2023

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.

Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decrease in First Half of March

202.6 ⇓14.9%

January 1997 = 100

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.6% from February in the first 15 days of March. The midmonth Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped to 202.6, which was down 14.9% from the full month of March 2023. The seasonal adjustment drove the decline. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of March rose 2.8% compared to February, while the unadjusted price was down 11.6% year over year.  

Line Graph Mid Mar 2024

Over the last two weeks, three-year-old Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices increased an aggregate of 1.3%, which was just below the typical normal increase observed of 1.4% at this time of year. Over the first 15 days of March, MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 99.9%, indicating that valuation models are very close to market prices. MMR conversion is up one-tenth of a point against the prior year at the beginning of March. The average daily sales conversion rate of 64.1% in the first half of the month was below the March 2019 daily average of 65.3%. The conversion rate has risen four points from February 2024, indicating that we are seeing stronger-than-normal buying demand as wholesale markets move into spring. 

All major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that remained lower year over year in the first half of March. Compared to the industry’s year-over-year decline of 14.9%, luxury was down 13.5%, and SUVs declined 14.5%. Performing worse than the industry, midsize cars were down 16.9%, compact cars were off by 16.6%, and pickups lost 15.6% year over year. However, we did see some major segments showing positive price performance compared to February. While the industry overall was down 0.6% against the prior month, compact cars were up 1.1%, SUVs were up 0.2%, and luxury was flat at 0.0% versus February. Midsize cars declined only 0.2%, outperforming the index overall, while trucks fell 0.8%, the only segment faring worse than the industry average. Electric vehicles (EVs) were down 18.8% against values for March 2023, while the non-EV segment declined by 13.1% over the same period. Compared to February, non-EVs declined by 0.3% in the first half of March, while EVs were down 4.9% over the same period. 

Mid-March 2024 vs March 2023

Wholesale supply is down in mid-March. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, we estimate that wholesale supply ended February at 25 days, down three days from the end of January and up two days year over year. Wholesale supply remains relatively tighter for this time of year. As of March 15, wholesale supply was down one additional day from the end of February at 24 days and up one day year over year. However, wholesale supply remains down four days compared to 2019. 

Rental risk prices remain mixed in first two weeks of March.The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of March was down 9.9% year over year. Rental risk prices were up by 1.6% compared to the full month of February. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of  March (at 50,600 miles) was down 22.0% compared to a year ago and up 8.3% month over month.  

Consumer sentiment changed little in March. The initial March reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 0.5% to 76.9 as future expectations declined but views of current conditions were stable. Expectations for inflation were unchanged from last month. Recent inflation data and readings on gas prices in March indicate that consumers are seeing increases in prices so far this year. However, vehicle prices are continuing to decline, and consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved to the best level since June 2021. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult points to a small increase as well in the first half of March. As of March 15, that index has also increased 0.6% for the month. The average price for unleaded gas has increased 3.2% so far in March according to AAA, and gas prices are down only 1% year over year.