Used Vehicle Value Index
By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.
Surge in Wholesale Prices Slowing
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.29% in the first 15 days of June compared to the month of May. This brought the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 203.6, a 36.4% increase from June 2020.
Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices continued to increase but at a decelerating pace in the first two weeks of June. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 0.8% cumulative increase over the last two weeks, with last week recording the lowest weekly increase in 20 weeks. Over the first 15 days of June, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 99.6%. This indicates valuation models are more closely reflecting market prices than we have seen since early January. The sales conversion rate declined in the first half of June relative to May but remained elevated from historical norms. Sales efficiency last week was more than 6 percentage points higher than the average sales efficiency in June 2019. The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values likely peaked last week.
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in the first 15 days of June. Pickup trucks and vans outperformed the overall market, while most other major segments underperformed the overall market.
Used supply tight. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply is below normal levels, at 41 days. Wholesale supply is down to 19 days for the most recent seven-day period, when normal supply is 23.
Rental risk pricing decreases. The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of June was up 8% year-over-year. Rental risk prices were down 3% compared to May. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of June (at 87,000 miles) was up 100% compared to a year ago but down 1% month-over-month.
Consumer credit improves with strong loan performance. Auto loan performance improved again in May as improving employment conditions and loan accommodations led to further declines in severe delinquencies. Equifax estimates that 2.3% of auto loans were in accommodation as of the end of April, which was unchanged from 2.3% at the end of February. Relative to the level of accommodation pre-pandemic, approximately 1.2 million auto loans currently do not have payments due and have frozen statuses. These are the loans most likely to have fallen into delinquency and possibly complete default by now. In May, 1.07% of auto loans were severely delinquent, which was a decline from 1.12% in April. Some 3.95% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, which was a decline from 4.13% in April. The 60-day-plus delinquencies declined in May for the fourth month in a row, and delinquencies were down 21.5% year-over-year. Despite continued strong loan performance and strong vehicle values, credit access declined in May after having improved in seven of the prior eight months. Our Dealertrack Auto Credit Index measured auto credit as modestly tighter than in February 2020 before the pandemic began, but auto credit is looser for new vehicle loans.