Used Vehicle Value Index
By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.
Wholesale Prices Begin To Cool
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.9% in the first 15 days of September compared to the month of August. This brought the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 162.3, a 16.0% increase from September 2019.
Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices declined on younger aged vehicles over the last two weeks. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 1.2% cumulative decline in the first two weeks of September. Over the first 15 days of September, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, was below 100% in all but two days and averaged 99.4%. This trend suggests further price declines ahead.
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in the first 15 days of September. Luxury cars and pickup trucks outperformed the overall market, while most other major segments underperformed the overall market.
Used supply on the rise. Both retail and wholesale supply have increased modestly in recent weeks. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply is back close to a normal level at 43 days. Wholesale supply has also increased to 27 days for the most recent seven-day period when normal supply is 23.
Rental risk pricing decreases. The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of September was up 6% year-over-year. Rental risk prices were down 3% compared to August. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of September (at 40,800 miles) was down 13% compared to a year ago and up 3% month-over-month.
Coronavirus uncertainty amid mixed conditions. Auto loan severe delinquency rates fell again August, as loan accommodations continue to play a role. Equifax estimates that 4.2% of auto loans were under an accommodation at the end of August, which was a decline from a peak of 8% at the end of June. In August, 1.21% of auto loans were severely delinquent, which was a 27-month low. 4.36% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, which was a 26-month low. However, 30-day delinquencies rose 6.8% in August, which was the largest monthly increase in 19 months. Headline and core inflation increased again in August as the hardest hit prices from the spring continue their slow recovery. Apparel prices, airline fares, hotel prices, gas prices, car insurance, used vehicle values, and food away from home prices continued to increase and drove aggregate prices up. Both the headline and core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July. The Core CPI was up 1.7% year-over-year, its highest level of inflation since March. The overall CPI was up 1.3% year-over-year, which was also the highest level since March. Inflation is likely to pick up over the next several months.