Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.

 

Wholesale Prices Rebound With Start of Spring Bounce

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.58% month-over-month in March. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 136.0, a 4.0% increase from a year ago.

Looking at trends in weekly Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices, March saw the traditional spring bounce in values, particularly in non-luxury vehicles. Three-year-old vehicle values in aggregate saw four straight weeks of price gains that erased most of the price declines in January and February. The pattern is likely to continue for two to three more weeks, leading to higher prices relative to the start of the year.

On a year-over-year basis, most major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price gains in March. Midsize cars outperformed the overall market, while all other major segments underperformed the overall market.

Weak retail results for vehicle sales in March. According to Cox Automotive estimates, used vehicle sales volume was down 1.7% year-over-year in March. We estimate the March used SAAR to be 39.0 million, down from 39.7 million last March and down from February’s 39.4 million rate.

136.0 ⇑4.0%

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
March 2019

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January 1995 = 100

 

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January 1995 = 100

Price Changes for
Selective Market Classes

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March 2019 vs. March 2018

Like the used market, the new vehicle market showed weakness in March. March new vehicle sales were down 2.2% year-over-year, with one less selling day compared to March 2018. However, the March SAAR came in at 17.5 million, improving versus last year’s 17.2 million. Cars continue to see declines, as sales in March fell 7.9% compared to last year. Light trucks outperformed cars in March, finishing the month up 0.6% year-over-year.

Combined rental, commercial, and government purchases of new vehicles were up 4.5% year-over-year in March, and up 16% month-over-month. Rental (+2%), commercial (+11% ), and government (+7%) fleet channels were up year-over-year in March. New vehicle retail sales were down 4% in March, leading to a retail SAAR of 14.0 million, down from 14.1 million last March.

New vehicle inventories came in above 4 million units for the second consecutive month.

Rental risk pricing improves. The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in March was down 1% year-over-year. Rental risk prices were up 2% compared to February. Average mileage for rental risk units in February (at 45,200 miles) was up 0.4% compared to a year ago and up 1% month-over-month. 

Slowing economic growth and declining confidence. The fourth quarter’s real GDP growth rate was revised down to 2.2% from the originally estimated 2.6%. Downward revisions were caused by lower consumer spending, lower fixed investment, and lower government spending compared to what was initially reported. Consumer confidence in March declined 6% and is now lower than last year. However, plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months jumped in March. Plans to purchase had been on a multi-month slide consistent with declining confidence and sales.

Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Jonathan Smoke's quarterly conference calls, please email manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
Friday, Apr 5
11am

You are invited to join Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive and compiler of the Manheim Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Jonathan will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone
888-424-8151

Conf. ID
7099 834#

You can also listen to a recording of the last call.

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.

Jonathan's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.

View April Presentation

View Previous Presentations

January 2019

October 2018

July 2018

April 2018