Used Vehicle Value Index
By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.
Wholesale Prices Show Seasonal Strength
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.9% in the first 15 days of October compared to the month of September. This brought the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 162.7, a 16.0% increase from October 2019. It should be noted that the non-seasonally adjusted monthly change was -1.5%, which is in line with what we have been seeing in weekly price trends. The difference between the two metrics is largely a result of the seasonal adjustment, which expects a larger decline in October. For example, across the full history of the Manheim Index, October has averaged a 2.1% monthly decline in the NSA price. Indeed, last year the decline was 2.7%.
Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices declined on vehicles over the last two weeks. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 1.5% cumulative decline over the last two weeks. Over the first 15 days of October, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, was below 100% every day and averaged 99.4%. The key indicators suggest non-adjusted used vehicle values will continue to decline in the days ahead.
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in the first 15 days of October. Luxury cars and pickup trucks outperformed the overall market, while most other major segments underperformed the overall market.
Used supply close to normal. Both retail and wholesale supply have increased modestly in recent weeks. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply is close to a normal level at 45 days. Wholesale supply has increased to 27 days for the most recent seven-day period, when normal supply is 23.
Rental risk pricing decreases. The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of October was up 4% year-over-year. Rental risk prices were down 6% compared to September. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of October (at 56,000 miles) was up 16% compared to a year ago and up 31% month-over-month.
Coronavirus uncertainty amid mixed conditions. Auto loan severe delinquency rates increased in September for the first time since January, but accommodations continue to depress delinquencies and defaults. Equifax estimates that 3.6% of auto loans were under an accommodation at the end of September, which was a decline from a peak of 8% at the end of June. Over 2 million auto loans are prevented from degrading as a result of a current accommodation. Credit conditions are likely to deteriorate rapidly as fiscal support fades. The Federal Reserve reported that Consumer Credit excluding housing-related debt declined in August by $7.2 billion. Revolving credit (credit card balances) fell by $9.4 billion, while non-revolving debt (auto loans and student loans) increased by only $2.2 billion. That August increase was the smallest monthly increase this year except for April. Declines in student loan originations likely caused more of the deceleration in growth, but we know that retail sales of new and used vehicles softened in August just as the expanded unemployment benefits expired at the end of July.